# The proven formula for sure wins only on online bets

Yes, there is a guaranteed formula for sure wins only bets! Professional bettors use it to get a steady profit from sports betting, discover it too! But first of all, you have to understand from the start that it is not available to everyone and that the basis of its correct use is a lot of work.

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## PROVEN FORMULA FOR SURE WIN BETS – WHAT WILL YOU FIND?

• The importance of mathematical probabilities in sports betting
• What betting strategies do we use?
• What is the probability of winning and how is it calculated?
• Calculate the probabilities using Kelly’s formula
• Final conclusions

## 1. THE IMPORTANCE OF MATHEMATICAL PROBABILITIES SPORTS BETTING

Sports betting has the potential to enrich you, but at the same time, it can take you to the hoe. This is because sports betting is a game of chance. But be careful! I said game of chance, not a game of chance, and there is a difference between the two terms. In gambling, you will depend strictly on how lucky you are that day. And any strategy you adopt has little chance of changing the results of your games. Instead, in sports betting, things are different because you have control over the bets you decide to place. And your sports knowledge and a well-developed strategy could turn the odds in your favor. That’s why I can call sports betting a game of chance because here the mathematical probabilities have their contribution.

Probability, if we refer strictly from a mathematical point of view, can be most easily defined as the ratio between the number of favorable cases and the number of possible cases. The probability is usually quantified by a number between 0 and 1. Zero indicates the impossibility of an event occurring, while 1 indicates the certainty of the occurrence of that event. The higher this number, the more likely that event is to occur. Let’s take the case of the classic two-sided coin. Given that both results are equally plausible and there are no favorable arguments for one side of the coin, then we can say that both have a probability of 0.5.

The math odds apply to sports betting more than you might think. If you are able to find safe bets, then you can say that you are very good when it comes to mathematical probabilities.

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How do you choose the best sports betting tips?

Sports betting is popular all over the world. Both among ardent fans and among people who are not necessarily interested in sports but want to generate a steady income from this activity. In the end, anyone wants sure wins only, because no one wants to lose. It is true that there are bettors who play strictly for winnings, while for others betting is a hobby. The latter will not be very affected if they lose their money, because they usually bet amounts they can afford to lose. But those who are interested in becoming professional bettors and constantly get sure wins only sports bets must move to a higher level than second-hand bettors. To do this it is mandatory to understand the role of probabilities and statistics in sports betting.

The problem with many bettors is that they are in a hurry and want to win large sums of money in a short period of time, instead of thinking long term. It is important not to rush to place a particular bet without having high confidence in it or without being sufficiently documented. This is the only way you can have a chance to bet without risking losing the entire bank in a short time. Another mistake made by many bettors is that they choose to bet on the team they play with.

In doing so, it is obvious that bets are placed with the heart rather than the head and are no longer based on logical arguments. Of course, you could say that you want to bet on your team because you know it best, and this way it is easier for you to bet on its matches. You can do this as long as you are convinced that you will be objective enough. For many, this is harder to do than it seems. You will really find out if you are impartial when you have to bet against your favorite team. If you can do this without any hesitation, then it means you are on the right track.

## 2. WHAT BETTING STRATEGIES DO WE USE AND RECOMMEND?

Since there are sports bets, bettors have tried to increase their chances of winning using different sports strategies. In fact, some of the most popular betting strategies are readjustments of strategies originally used for roulette games. One of these strategies is Martingale. It’s hard to believe you haven’t heard of Martingale, which is perhaps the most popular betting strategy. That doesn’t mean it’s the best, by far. The goal is to rely more on odds 2 bets and double the stake after each bet lost.

The idea is that when you have a sure wins only bet, it will offset the losses resulting from all previously lost bets and you will also make a profit. Sounds good in theory, but in practice, things are not so rosy. It is enough to catch about five losing bets in a row, and things can get seriously complicated. Other well-known strategies are Fibonacci, D’Alembert or Labouchere. But all these strategies have about the same starting idea: the stakes change depending on the results of previous bets. Under the given conditions, the problems are about the same.

How do professional bettors choose the strategy to apply?

Nowadays, professional bettors understand something else by “betting strategy” or “betting system”. For them, a system or strategy is based on a precise model. That model takes into account certain statistics and information considered relevant by the person who created that system. It is considered that such a system cannot be successfully copied from one bettor to another. Each person is unique in their own way. And the system is based on the style of play and the experience of that bettor. Also, the basis of any betting system is well-developed bankroll management, but in no case inspired by Martingale or Fibonacci. A professional bettor knows that the probability of a bet being a sure wins only. Does not depend on the results of previous bets. And therefore will not take such information into account when deciding how much money to bet.

An experienced bettor will decide in advance to start betting exactly which bank allocates to this activity. And how much he is willing to bet on each match. Usually, the exact stake of the bet will depend on the odds offered by the betting agencies. On how safe the bettor is on that bet, and on the relationship between these two factors (odds – safety). Because the better the ratio between the odds offered and the probability that the bet will be sure wins only bet, the higher the stake should be. This is where Kelly’s criteria come into play.

## 3. WHAT IS THE LIKELIHOOD OF GETTING SURE WINS ONLY AND HOW IT’S CALCULATED

In probability theory, Kelly’s criterion (also known as Kelly’s strategy or Kelly’s formula) is a mathematical formula by which we can calculate the exact amount we place on each bet. If you use this formula correctly you have a much better chance of getting sure wins only bets in the long run than you will ever have with Martingale or Fibonacci. Before talking about Kelly’s criterion, you need to have some basic basics about mathematical probability.

• The chance of an “A” event occurring is represented as P (A), p (A), or Pr (A). This mathematical definition of probability can be extended to an infinite number of spaces, using the concept of measurement.

• The opposite of the probability that event “A” will occur is usually denoted as event [not A] or ~ A. The chance for such an event to occur has the formula: P [not A] = 1 – P (A).

Suppose that two events A and B occur simultaneously. This is basically an intersection between A and B and is denoted as P (A⋂B).

Independent events

When two events occur and they are independent, then the probability that the two events will occur is denoted as P (A and B) = P (A⋂ B) = P (A) P (B).

Mutually exclusive events

If any event A or B occurs as a result of a single action, then this phenomenon is known as the union of events A and B and is denoted as. The formula for calculating two mutually exclusive events is given by: P (A or B) = P (AUB) = P (A) + P (B)

For example, the probability of having a “1” or a “2” after rolling a six-sided dice is: P (1 or 2) = P (1) + P (2) = 1/6 + 1 / 6 = 1/3

We say that the two events are mutually exclusive because, if after rolling the dice we get the value “1”, it is clear that we can not get the value “2” on the same roll. This is of course true and vice versa.

Events that are not mutually exclusive

If two events are not mutually exclusive, the probability is calculated as P (A or B) = P (A) + P (B) – P (A and B).

## 4. PROBABILITY CALCULATION USING KELLY’S FORMULA

Now back to Kelly’s criteria. It has the following formula:

Where:

• f = the amount you have to bet
• b = decimal quota – 1
• p = probability that the bet will be a winner
• q = probability that the bet will be a loser. This can be calculated as 1 – p.

Let’s take a concrete example. We have a bet with chances of winning of 60% (p = 0.60, q = 0.40) and a odds of 2.00 (b = 2-1 = 1). In this case, the bettor should bet 20% of the total bank.

If the bettor has no advantage, ie if b = q / p, then it is recommended that he not bet. If the advantage is negative (b <q / p), then the result will be a negative one, which means that the bettor should bet that percentage from the bank, but against the initial bet. For example, in American roulette, a bettor receives a odds of 2 if he bets on red. Although there are 18 red numbers and 20 numbers that are not red (p = 18/38). After using Kelly’s formula you will reach a result of -1/19. This means that the bettor should bet 19% of the bankroll that the next roulette game will not turn red. Of course, at roulette, we do not have the option to bet against a certain result.

In sports betting we have this option for certain types of bets, such as bets on the number of goals of the “over / under” type. And if we bet on a betting exchange agency, we have this option on virtually any type of bet (back / lay bets).

Kelly system problems

The only problem is that we are the ones who have to decide what is the probability that a bet will be won or lost. As long as we are able to calculate correctly the real probability we will be able to obtain good results with the help of this strategy. However, let’s take a situation where Kelly’s formula will raise some pretty big issues.

Suppose we have a football match where you expect the guest team to win, with a odds of 5 for possible success. Consider that there is a 50% chance that the bet will be a sure wins only bet, so p = 0.5, q = 0.5. In this case:

• f = (0.5 * 4 – 0.5) / 4 = 1.5 / 4 = 0.375

This means that you should bet 37.5% of the bank on a single match. This percentage is very high and contradicts a basic rule that professional bettors follow, namely that it is never good to bet more than 10% of the bankroll no matter how safe you are on that prediction.

But why did I get a 37.5% result using Kelly’s formula? The answer is quite simple; I probably misjudged the real chances of the bet is won. Since the away team had a 5 odds to win, it means that the betting agencies considered that it had a probability of about 20% to prevail. Instead, we anticipated this probability at 50%, and the difference is more than visible. Even if bookmakers do not always correctly anticipate this probability, or sometimes set odds according to other criteria, they are never very far from the truth.

You should be wondering if the difference between what the online bookmaker offers and what you think will happen is very big. Sure, the problem here is with you rather than Kelly’s formula. It is good, you apply it badly. But this shows that it is rather intended for experienced bettors, able to anticipate the real chances of getting a sure wins only bet of a certain prediction.

What solutions are there to these problems?

If for some reason you are left with the opinion that the bettors wrongly anticipated the chances that a straw will be a winner, then you have two possibilities. The first would be to bet exactly the amount resulting from Kelly’s calculations; since you think there is a 50% chance that a 5.00 odds bet will be a winner, then it may be worth betting 37.5% on the bank (although it is not recommended).

The second option would be to establish from the start a system for managing such situations. If the result is greater than a certain percentage then you could decrease it a certain number of times. For example, if you got a percentage between 10% and 20%, you could halve that value, and if the percentage is over 20%, then you could reduce it even three times. In the above case, you can reduce that percentage by 37.5% three times and reach a value of 12.5%.

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However, I also recommend using an analysis model for decided bets. This way you will be able to see if you really correctly anticipated the chances of getting a sure wins only bet prediction, or on the contrary, you were far from the truth. For example, you choose 100 odds of 2.00 and for each, you say that the probability of winning is 55%. If 55 bets come out, it means that you anticipated correctly, but if only 40 come out, it means that you were very far from the truth. In a situation as ideal as this, you can see with your own eyes whether you calculated correctly or not, but you will probably have bets on all sorts of different odds, and with all sorts of probabilities. And then you need an analysis model.

More complex formulas

Let’s go back to the math. There are specialists who have managed to create quite complex formulas for certain types of bets. One of these formulas can be used when betting on horse racing:

There are “m” horses in the race, the probability that the competitor with the number “i” will win is “Pi”. The percentage we should bet on that horse is “bi”. And the odds are “sheep” (but as above, subtract the value of “1” from the decimal dimension). We have: b = p

For which: